Snapshot
Lay a solid foundation for a campaign by working backwards from long-term goals to identify the conditions that must be in place in order to achieve those goals, and why.
Origins
The term emerged in the 1990s as a new way to articulate the underlying strategic assumptions behind projects of social and political change. Widely used as a core campaign strategy and planning tool by activists and organizers, as well as NGOs, charities, and even business and professional bodies.
Theory of change is a campaign planning methodology that forces you to get specific about how social change happens. You start with the long-term goal of your campaign, and then work backwards to identify all the conditions needed to achieve that goal. Next, you can get specific about what actions you can take to create those conditions.
Developing a theory of change can be particularly helpful during the early stages of campaign planning. It guides you to choose the right tactics to most efficiently achieve those outcomes, and helps you avoid the common mistake of jumping immediately into action without connecting today’s tactics with tomorrow’s strategy (see: PRINCIPLE: Choose tactics that support your strategy).
A theory of change is expressed as a series of if/then assumptions. For example, if your objective is to get Parliament to amend a certain law, then the possible theories of change might be: Parliament would amend the law: 1. If there were sufficient public pressure on Members of Parliament; 2. If Members of Parliament were more aware of the flaws in the current law; and 3. If there is sufficient international pressure on Members of Parliament.
These are three viable theories of change. Any one of them could potentially win your legislative amendments. Resources permitting, it will increase your odds of victory to pursue more than one path simultaneously. However, given limited resources and organizing capacity — as well as particular conditions in your local context (see: PRINCIPLE: Know your community) — you’ll likely need to commit to the theory (or theories) most likely to achieve your goals.
Once you choose, you would then devise a set of tactics to serve that particular theory of change.
How to use
Divide the participants into three groups where groups will work on ‘If’ (campaign action), ‘Then’ (campaign goal), and ‘Because’ (reasons to attain goal) respectively (2 mins).
Instruct participants to brainstorm campaign actions (for ‘If’ group), campaign goals (for ‘Then’) and potential reasons (‘Because’ group) for achieving goals on the paper, and ask them to write the points on large sheets or a flipchart (5–7 mins).
After a few minutes, have people move to another sheet and add on to what is written on the paper, considering their previous points of their group work (5–7 mins).
Ask to move to one more sheet and continue to brainstorm points (3 mins).
Now instruct participants to keep ‘If’ sheet (first), ‘Then’ sheet (second) and ‘Because’ sheet (third) side by side. Alternatively, you can paste these sheets on the wall (1–2 mins).
Do a gallery walk and then ask groups to construct a sentence as follows: IF…we take This Action (choose from ‘If’ sheet), THEN…we’ll achieve This Goal (consider from ‘Then’ sheet), BECAUSE….of These Reasons (take from ‘Because’ sheet) (4–6 mins).
Back in the big group, question the different propositions and discuss.
Ask participants to share what stood out for them, which change theory will be considered for their campaigns, and other relevant reflections (4–6 mins).
To conclude, summarize learnings or key points about the method. If you have time, ask participants to write down the top three learnings they may want to take forward from this exercise (3–5 mins).